Global Market Report - 8 September
The Australian market is set to open higher as futures were up.
Australia
Australian shares are set to rise following a rally on Wall Street. Investor concerns were eased by a drop in oil prices and a reaffirmation of the U.S. central bank’s commitment to combat inflation.
ASX futures were up 29 points or 0.43% at 6752 as of 8:00am on Thursday, pointing to a rise at the open.
Major U.S. stock benchmarks moved higher Wednesday even as investors considered risks to the global economy. The S&P 500 was up 1.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 2.1%. Each of the S&P 500's 11 sectors notched gains, besides energy stocks.
Stocks and commodities around the globe have fallen for three consecutive weeks on three-pronged concerns for the world economy.
In commodities, oil prices fell to their lowest level since before the invasion of Ukraine. International benchmark Brent crude sank 5.2% to $88 a barrel. "What we are seeing today is worry over Chinese demand," said Stewart Glickman, senior equity analyst and head of energy sector at CFRA Research. "The lion's share of incremental demand for oil on a yearly basis comes from emerging markets," added Mr. Glickman. "When China taps the brake hard on its economy with its zero-tolerance policy on Covid-19, that eats into projected demand." Meanwhile, gold edged up 0.06% to US$1,718.06.
In local bond markets, the yield on Australian 2 Year government bonds rose to 3.02% while the 10 Year rose to 3.70%. Overseas, the yield on 2 Year US Treasury notes rose to 3.43% and the yield on the 10 Year US Treasury notes was down at 3.26%.
The Australian dollar hit 67.65 US cents down from the previous close of 67.34. The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which tracks the US dollar against 16 other currencies edged up to 101.36.
Asia
Chinese shares ended higher, as investors digested August trade data. "Most notably, shipment growth to key destinations improved across the board, export growth of consumer items and anti-Covid goods also improved notably," says UBS North Asia economist William Deng. He reckons that China's export shipments may rise in the coming months "if the impact from temporary port suspension normalizes." The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1% to 3246.29, the Shenzhen Composite added 0.5% to 2123.20 and the ChiNext Price Index advanced 1.2% to 2570.80. Auto stocks were broadly higher. BYD Co. rose 3.6% ,Great Wall Motor gained 0.8% and SAIC Motor was 0.1% lower.
Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 1.4% to 18930.65, amid bearish sentiment for Asian stocks. The weak lead from Wall Street stocks, and the decline in the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index should drive some paring of gains in Chinese equities, says IG market strategist Jun Rong Yeap in a note. Decliners include ENN Energy and Xinyi Glass Holdings, which are each down 2.8%, and Shenzhou International Group, which is 2.7% lower. Technology stocks are also lower. Meituan declines 2.1% while Tencent Holdings trades 2.0% lower. Gainers include Longfor Group, which is 1.7% higher.
Japanese stocks ended lower, dragged by falls in shipping and energy stocks, as concerns continue about the Fed's tightening and the economic outlook. Major shipper Nippon Yusen drops 7.9% and oil explorer Inpex loses 2.8%. Meanwhile, auto stocks rise thanks partly to the yen's recent weakening. The Nikkei Stock Average falls 0.7% to 27430.30. USD/JPY is at 144.02 after rising to a new 24-year high of 144.38 earlier, compared with 142.79 as of Tuesday 5 p.m. Eastern Time. Economic data are in focus, including U.S. trade data due later in the day. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rises one basis point to 0.245%.
Europe
European stocks were mixed at close following broad-based losses earlier in the session as US stocks recovered. The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.6%, the French CAC 40 was flat and the German DAX climbed 0.3%.
Ubisoft Entertainment slumped 17% as China's Tencent Holdings agreed to raise its stake in the company, raising concerns that this could scupper a full sale of the French game maker. Energy and mining stocks fall as oil and gas prices decline along with copper prices. Utility stocks rallies, led by Austrian electricity company Verbund, as the market bets on regulation shifts to address Europe's energy crisis.
The FTSE 100 closed Wednesday down 0.67% as mining and oils stocks fell. It has been a quiet day for markets and it looks like the recent wave of equity sales has lost a lot of power, but the FTSE 100 failed to recover as commodity stocks acted as a drag, IG Group PLC chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp says in a research note. "OPEC+'s decision to send a message earlier in the week has clearly not been heeded, and oil prices have fallen yet further, with recession fears the main driver at present," Mr. Beauchamp says. While European and U.S. markets have stabilized, the FTSE 100's commodity contingent is once again turning from a help to a hindrance, he says.
North America
Major U.S. stock benchmarks moved higher Wednesday even as investors considered risks to the global economy. The S&P 500 was up 1.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 2.1%. Each of the S&P 500's 11 sectors notched gains, besides energy stocks.
Stocks and commodities have fallen for three consecutive weeks on three-pronged concerns for the world economy. In China, Covid-19 lockdowns are curtailing activity and disrupting international supply chains. Europe's energy crisis is shutting down parts of industry and saddling governments with enormous bills.
In the U.S., the problem for markets is different. Some investors say the economy is too strong, encouraging the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates to curb inflation. Wednesday's move might suggest that sentiment is changing.
"For the last several weeks, the market read positive economic news as bad news, because it meant further tightening from the Fed," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR Inc. "That counterintuitive reaction can only last for so long -- today investors are realizing they overreacted."
Mr. Hogan noted that the best-case scenario -- the Fed tackling inflation without causing a recession -- requires economic growth to remain fairly robust. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields also halted their recent rise, adding some relief for investors who feared rates could hit even more restrictive levels, he said.
Chinese trade data showed outbound shipments rose 7.1% from a year earlier in August, slowing from an 18% increase in July. China's imports increased 0.3% from a year earlier, down from 2.3% growth in July.
The export figures point to softening global growth, while the import data suggest lockdowns are hurting demand in China, said BNP Paribas Asset Management strategist Daniel Morris. "You are conceivably losing your second-biggest global motor of growth because Covid just seems to drag on and on in terms of the restrictions," he said.
Investors parsed another batch of data on the U.S. economy on Wednesday, in the Fed's release of its periodic compilation of economic anecdotes collected from businesses around the country
Comments in the so-called beige book contained notions of resilient economic strength to this point, which investors weighed against a bleaker forward outlook. Similarly, continued wage growth was measured against an overall slowing in price increases in many of the Fed's 12 districts.